DELPHI COMO ALTERNATIVA METODOLÓGICA DE PESQUISA EM CIÊNCIAS SOCIAIS: UMA EXPERIÊNCIA SOBRE CONSUMO COLABORATIVO
Abstract
Criado na década de 1950 a partir de pesquisas aeroespaciais, o método Delphi vem ganhando diversidade em seus usos e modelos. O objetivo deste artigo é refletir sobre o Delphi como uma alternativa metodológica no campo das ciências sociais, analisando suas possibilidades e desafios a partir de uma pesquisa sobre consumo colaborativo. Os resultados evidenciaram profundidade na identificação de direcionadores e inibidores do consumo colaborativo em múltiplas dimensões (legais, empresariais, tecnológicas e socioculturais). O estudo concluiu que o método Delphi se mostra atual, inovador e pertinente para pesquisas sociais na contemporaneidade devido à sua capacidade prospectiva em contextos complexos; não presencialidade (principalmente pelo aumento das conexões remotas evidenciadas a partir da pandemia Covid-19), construção coletiva e iterativa de conhecimento; redução de hierarquias e participação de especialistas. Os desafios consistem no processo longo de pesquisa e na escolha dos especialistas (seja pela homogeneidade ou pela diversidade entre eles).
References
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BARNES, Stuart; MATTSSON, Jan. Understanding current and future issues in collaborative consumption: a four-stage Delphi study. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, v. 104, p. 200-211, 2016. Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.01.006 Acesso em: 30 nov. 2020.
BAUER, Martin; GASKELL, George. Pesquisa qualitativa com texto, imagem e som: um manual prático. 13 ed. Petrópolis: Vozes, 2017.
BERGER, Gaston. Phénoménologie du temps et prospective. Paris: PUF, 1964.
BRANDÃO, Carlos. Repensando a Pesquisa Participante. São Paulo: Brasiliense,1985.
CHILÃO, José; LÚCIO, José. Método Delphi como ferramenta de avaliação geopolítica e geoeconómica – o caso da Plataforma Continental Portuguesa. In: XI CONGRESSO DA GEOGRAFIA PORTUGUESA, 2017, Porto. Anais: As dimensões e a responsabilidade social da Geografia. Porto: Universidade do Porto. Disponível em: https://drive.google.com/file/d/19hlK3r-kvAiPddCDLkS6PTAH2x9l_L3g/view Acesso em: 30 nov. 2020.
COATES, Joseph F.; MAHAFFIE, John B.; HINES, Andy. Technological Forecasting: 1970- 1993. Technological Forecastingand Social Change, v. 47, p.23-33, 1994.
COUGER, J. Daniel. Key human resource issues in IS in the 1990s: Views of IS executives versus human resource executives. Information & Management, v. 14, n. 4, p. 161-174, 1988.
DALKEY, Norman. C. The Delphi method. California: Rand Corporation Santa Monica, 1967.
DAVIDSON, Patricia et al. Voices from practice: Mental health nurses identify research priorities. Archives of Psychiatric Nursing, v. 11, n. 6, p. 340-345, 1997.
ECKMAN, Carol. A. Development of an instrument to evaluate intercollegiate athletic coaches: a modified Delphi study (dissertation). West Virginia University, Morgantown, 1983.
ESTES, Gerald M.; KUESPERT, Don. Delphi in industrial forecasting. Chemical and Engineering News, p. 40-47, agosto de 1976.
FREITAS, Cláudio Kury. Direcionadores e inibidores para o consumo colaborativo no cenário brasileiro. Dissertação (Mestrado em Administração)- Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, 2017. Disponível em: http://tede2.pucrs.br/tede2/handle/tede/7362 Acesso em: 29 nov. 2020.
GITAHY, Ivan Márcio Jr. Construção de cenários prospectivos a partir da visão de atores sociais: um estudo sobre o município de Presidente Prudente/SP. Revista CONBRAD, v. 2, n. 3, p. 61-72, 2017.
GOODMAN, Claire M. The Delphi technique: a critique. Journal of advanced nursing, v. 12, n. 6, p. 729-734, 1987.
GREEN, Paul. The content of a college-level outdoor leadership course for land-based outdoor pursuits in the Pacific Northwest: a Delphi consensus. Microform Publications, College of Health, Physical Education and Recreation, University of Oregon, 1982.
GREEN, Barbara; JONES, Melanie; HUGHES, David; WILLIAMS, Anne. Applying the Delphi technique in a study of GPs’ information requirements. Health & social care in the community, v. 7, n. 3, p. 198-205, 1999. Disponível em: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1046/j.1365-2524.1999.00176.x Acesso em: 23 nov. 2020.
GUERRA, Yolanda. A instrumentalidade do Serviço Social. São Paulo: Cortez, 2011.
HASSON, Felicity; KEENEY, Sinead. Enhancing rigour in the Delphi technique research. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, v. 78, n. 9, p. 1695-1704, 2011.
HSU, Chia; SANDFORD, Brian. The Delphi technique: making sense of consensus. Practical assessment, research & evaluation, v. 12, n. 10, p. 1-8, 2007.
KAHN, Herman; WIENER, Anthony. The year 2000: a framework for speculation on the next thirty three years. s/l: Hudson Institute, 1968.
KAYO, Eduardo; SECURATO, José. Método Delphi: fundamentos, críticas e vieses. Cadernos de Pesquisa em Administração, v. 1, n. 4, p. 51-61, 1997.
KEENEY, Sinead; HASSON, Felicity; MCKENNA, Hugh P. A critical review of the Delphi technique as a research methodology for nursing. International journal of nursing studies, v. 38, n. 2, p. 195-200, 2001.
LANDETA, Jon. Current validity of the Delphi method in social sciences. Technological forecasting and social change, v. 73, n. 5, p. 467-482, 2006.
LEE, Daeho; SHIN, Jungwoo; LEE, Sangwon. Network management in the era of convergence: focusing on application-based quality assessment of internet access service. Telecommunications Policy, v. 39, n. 8, p. 705-716, 2015.
LINSTONE, Harold; TUROFF, Murray. The Delphi method: techniques and applications. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1975.
______.; ______. The Delphi method: techniques and applications. Addison Wesley Newark, NJ: New Jersey Institute of Technology, 2002. Disponível em: https://web.njit.edu/~turoff/pubs/delphibook/index.html Acesso em 27 nov. 2020.
______.; ______. Delphi: a brief look backward and forward. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, v. 78, n. 9, p. 1712-1719, 2011.
LOUGHLIN, K.G.; MOREE, L.F. Using Delphi to achieve congruent objectives and activities in a pediatric department. Medical Educ., v. 54, n. 2, p. 101-106, 1979.
LUDWIG, Barbara. Predicting the future: have you considered using the Delphi methodology? Journal of extension, v. 35, n. 5, p. 1-4, 1997.
MARCIAL, Elaine C., GRUMBACH, Raul José S. Cenários Prospectivos: como construir um futuro melhor. Rio de Janeiro: Ed. FGV, 2008.
MARQUES, Joana; FREITAS, Denise. Método Delphi: caracterização e potencialidades na pesquisa em Educação. Pró Posições, vol. 29, n. 2, p. 389-415, May.-Aug. 2018. Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-6248-2015-0140 Acesso em: 28 nov. 2020.
MCKENNA, Hugh P. The Delphi technique: a worthwhile research approach for nursing?. Journal of advanced nursing, v. 19, n. 6, p. 1221-1225, 1994.
MONEY, Arthur H.; BABIN, Barry; SAMOUEL, Phillip. Fundamentos de métodos de pesquisa em administração. Porto Alegre: Bookman, 2005.
OLIVEIRA, Nilton Marques de; STRASSBURG, Udo; PIFFER, Moacir. Técnicas de pesquisa qualitativa: uma abordagem conceitual. Ciências Sociais Aplicadas em Revista, v. 17, n. 32, p. 87-110, 2017.
OSBORNE, Osborne; RATCLIFFE, Mary; COLLINS, Sue; MILLAR, Robin; DUSCHL, Rick. What “Ideas-about-Science” should be taught in school science? a Delphi study of the expert community. Journal of Research in science teaching, v. 40, n. 7, p. 692-720, 2003.
PARÉ, Guy; POBA-NZAOU, Placide; CAMERON, Ann-Francis; TEMPLIER, Mathieu. A systematic assessment of rigor in information systems ranking-type Delphi studies. Information & management, v. 50, n. 5, p. 207-217, 2013. Disponível em: https://www.academia.edu/21052333/A_systematic_assessment_of_rigor_in_information_systems_ranking_type_Delphi_studies Acesso em: 23 nov. 2020.
PIOLA, Sérgio F.; VIANNA Solon M.; VIVAS-CONSUELO, David. Estudo Delphi: atores sociais e tendências do sistema de saúde brasileiro. Cad. Saúde Pública, v. 18, p. 181-190, 2002.
PIRES, Silvio. Gestão estratégica da produção. Piracicaba: Unimep, 1995.
RENZI, Adriano B.; FREITAS, Sydney. The Delphi method for future scenarios construction. Procedia Manufacturing, v. 3, p. 5785-5791, 2015.
ROWE, Gene; WRIGHT, George. The Delphi technique: past, present, and future prospects—Introduction to the special issue. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, v. 78, n. 9, p. 1487-1490, 2011. Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.1080/07421222.2001.11045662 Acesso em: 23 nov. 2020.
SCHMIDT, Roy. Managing Delphi surveys using nonparametric statistical techniques. Decision Sciences, v. 28, n. 3, p. 763-774, 1997.
SCHMIDT, Roy; LYYTINEN, Kalle; KELL, Mark; CULE, Paul. Identifying software project risks: an international Delphi study. Journal o f management information systems, v. 17, n. 4, p. 5-36, 2001.
SEAGLE, Eddie; IVERSON, Maynard. Characteristics of the turfgrass industry in 2020: a Delphi study with implications for agricultural education programs. Journal of Southern Agricultural Research, v. 52, n. 1, p. 1-13, 2002. Disponível em: https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.500.7756&rep=rep1&type=pdf Acesso: 27 nov. 2020.
SHARECONOMY - The story of an economic revolution, 2014. Disponível em: https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/shareconomy/x/24662843#/ Acesso: 25 nov. 2020.
STRAUSS, Anselm; CORBIN, Juliet M. Grounded theory in practice. London, New Delhi: Sage, 1997.
VEN, AVD; DELBECP, André. The effectiveness of nominal, Delphi, and interacting group decision making processes. Academy of Management Journal, v. 17, n. 4, p. 605-621, 1974. Disponível em: https://journals.aom.org/doi/10.5465/255641 Acesso: 27 nov. 2020.
VON DER GRACHT, Heiko. Consensus measurement in Delphi studies: review and implications for future quality assurance. Technological forecasting and social change, v. 79, n. 8, p. 1525-1536, 2012.
WHITE, Gregory L. A model of romantic jealousy. Motivation and Emotion, v. 5, n. 4, p. 295-310, 1981.
WHITMAN, Walt. Provides in-depth analysis of the life, works. Boston: Twayne Publishers, 1990.
WRIGHT, James T. C.; GIOVINAZZO, Renata A. Delphi: uma ferramenta de apoio ao planejamento prospectivo. Caderno de Pesquisas em Administração, v. 1, n. 12, p. 54-65, 2000.
BARNES, Stuart; MATTSSON, Jan. Understanding current and future issues in collaborative consumption: a four-stage Delphi study. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, v. 104, p. 200-211, 2016. Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.01.006 Acesso em: 30 nov. 2020.
BAUER, Martin; GASKELL, George. Pesquisa qualitativa com texto, imagem e som: um manual prático. 13 ed. Petrópolis: Vozes, 2017.
BERGER, Gaston. Phénoménologie du temps et prospective. Paris: PUF, 1964.
BRANDÃO, Carlos. Repensando a Pesquisa Participante. São Paulo: Brasiliense,1985.
CHILÃO, José; LÚCIO, José. Método Delphi como ferramenta de avaliação geopolítica e geoeconómica – o caso da Plataforma Continental Portuguesa. In: XI CONGRESSO DA GEOGRAFIA PORTUGUESA, 2017, Porto. Anais: As dimensões e a responsabilidade social da Geografia. Porto: Universidade do Porto. Disponível em: https://drive.google.com/file/d/19hlK3r-kvAiPddCDLkS6PTAH2x9l_L3g/view Acesso em: 30 nov. 2020.
COATES, Joseph F.; MAHAFFIE, John B.; HINES, Andy. Technological Forecasting: 1970- 1993. Technological Forecastingand Social Change, v. 47, p.23-33, 1994.
COUGER, J. Daniel. Key human resource issues in IS in the 1990s: Views of IS executives versus human resource executives. Information & Management, v. 14, n. 4, p. 161-174, 1988.
DALKEY, Norman. C. The Delphi method. California: Rand Corporation Santa Monica, 1967.
DAVIDSON, Patricia et al. Voices from practice: Mental health nurses identify research priorities. Archives of Psychiatric Nursing, v. 11, n. 6, p. 340-345, 1997.
ECKMAN, Carol. A. Development of an instrument to evaluate intercollegiate athletic coaches: a modified Delphi study (dissertation). West Virginia University, Morgantown, 1983.
ESTES, Gerald M.; KUESPERT, Don. Delphi in industrial forecasting. Chemical and Engineering News, p. 40-47, agosto de 1976.
FREITAS, Cláudio Kury. Direcionadores e inibidores para o consumo colaborativo no cenário brasileiro. Dissertação (Mestrado em Administração)- Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, 2017. Disponível em: http://tede2.pucrs.br/tede2/handle/tede/7362 Acesso em: 29 nov. 2020.
GITAHY, Ivan Márcio Jr. Construção de cenários prospectivos a partir da visão de atores sociais: um estudo sobre o município de Presidente Prudente/SP. Revista CONBRAD, v. 2, n. 3, p. 61-72, 2017.
GOODMAN, Claire M. The Delphi technique: a critique. Journal of advanced nursing, v. 12, n. 6, p. 729-734, 1987.
GREEN, Paul. The content of a college-level outdoor leadership course for land-based outdoor pursuits in the Pacific Northwest: a Delphi consensus. Microform Publications, College of Health, Physical Education and Recreation, University of Oregon, 1982.
GREEN, Barbara; JONES, Melanie; HUGHES, David; WILLIAMS, Anne. Applying the Delphi technique in a study of GPs’ information requirements. Health & social care in the community, v. 7, n. 3, p. 198-205, 1999. Disponível em: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1046/j.1365-2524.1999.00176.x Acesso em: 23 nov. 2020.
GUERRA, Yolanda. A instrumentalidade do Serviço Social. São Paulo: Cortez, 2011.
HASSON, Felicity; KEENEY, Sinead. Enhancing rigour in the Delphi technique research. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, v. 78, n. 9, p. 1695-1704, 2011.
HSU, Chia; SANDFORD, Brian. The Delphi technique: making sense of consensus. Practical assessment, research & evaluation, v. 12, n. 10, p. 1-8, 2007.
KAHN, Herman; WIENER, Anthony. The year 2000: a framework for speculation on the next thirty three years. s/l: Hudson Institute, 1968.
KAYO, Eduardo; SECURATO, José. Método Delphi: fundamentos, críticas e vieses. Cadernos de Pesquisa em Administração, v. 1, n. 4, p. 51-61, 1997.
KEENEY, Sinead; HASSON, Felicity; MCKENNA, Hugh P. A critical review of the Delphi technique as a research methodology for nursing. International journal of nursing studies, v. 38, n. 2, p. 195-200, 2001.
LANDETA, Jon. Current validity of the Delphi method in social sciences. Technological forecasting and social change, v. 73, n. 5, p. 467-482, 2006.
LEE, Daeho; SHIN, Jungwoo; LEE, Sangwon. Network management in the era of convergence: focusing on application-based quality assessment of internet access service. Telecommunications Policy, v. 39, n. 8, p. 705-716, 2015.
LINSTONE, Harold; TUROFF, Murray. The Delphi method: techniques and applications. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1975.
______.; ______. The Delphi method: techniques and applications. Addison Wesley Newark, NJ: New Jersey Institute of Technology, 2002. Disponível em: https://web.njit.edu/~turoff/pubs/delphibook/index.html Acesso em 27 nov. 2020.
______.; ______. Delphi: a brief look backward and forward. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, v. 78, n. 9, p. 1712-1719, 2011.
LOUGHLIN, K.G.; MOREE, L.F. Using Delphi to achieve congruent objectives and activities in a pediatric department. Medical Educ., v. 54, n. 2, p. 101-106, 1979.
LUDWIG, Barbara. Predicting the future: have you considered using the Delphi methodology? Journal of extension, v. 35, n. 5, p. 1-4, 1997.
MARCIAL, Elaine C., GRUMBACH, Raul José S. Cenários Prospectivos: como construir um futuro melhor. Rio de Janeiro: Ed. FGV, 2008.
MARQUES, Joana; FREITAS, Denise. Método Delphi: caracterização e potencialidades na pesquisa em Educação. Pró Posições, vol. 29, n. 2, p. 389-415, May.-Aug. 2018. Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-6248-2015-0140 Acesso em: 28 nov. 2020.
MCKENNA, Hugh P. The Delphi technique: a worthwhile research approach for nursing?. Journal of advanced nursing, v. 19, n. 6, p. 1221-1225, 1994.
MONEY, Arthur H.; BABIN, Barry; SAMOUEL, Phillip. Fundamentos de métodos de pesquisa em administração. Porto Alegre: Bookman, 2005.
OLIVEIRA, Nilton Marques de; STRASSBURG, Udo; PIFFER, Moacir. Técnicas de pesquisa qualitativa: uma abordagem conceitual. Ciências Sociais Aplicadas em Revista, v. 17, n. 32, p. 87-110, 2017.
OSBORNE, Osborne; RATCLIFFE, Mary; COLLINS, Sue; MILLAR, Robin; DUSCHL, Rick. What “Ideas-about-Science” should be taught in school science? a Delphi study of the expert community. Journal of Research in science teaching, v. 40, n. 7, p. 692-720, 2003.
PARÉ, Guy; POBA-NZAOU, Placide; CAMERON, Ann-Francis; TEMPLIER, Mathieu. A systematic assessment of rigor in information systems ranking-type Delphi studies. Information & management, v. 50, n. 5, p. 207-217, 2013. Disponível em: https://www.academia.edu/21052333/A_systematic_assessment_of_rigor_in_information_systems_ranking_type_Delphi_studies Acesso em: 23 nov. 2020.
PIOLA, Sérgio F.; VIANNA Solon M.; VIVAS-CONSUELO, David. Estudo Delphi: atores sociais e tendências do sistema de saúde brasileiro. Cad. Saúde Pública, v. 18, p. 181-190, 2002.
PIRES, Silvio. Gestão estratégica da produção. Piracicaba: Unimep, 1995.
RENZI, Adriano B.; FREITAS, Sydney. The Delphi method for future scenarios construction. Procedia Manufacturing, v. 3, p. 5785-5791, 2015.
ROWE, Gene; WRIGHT, George. The Delphi technique: past, present, and future prospects—Introduction to the special issue. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, v. 78, n. 9, p. 1487-1490, 2011. Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.1080/07421222.2001.11045662 Acesso em: 23 nov. 2020.
SCHMIDT, Roy. Managing Delphi surveys using nonparametric statistical techniques. Decision Sciences, v. 28, n. 3, p. 763-774, 1997.
SCHMIDT, Roy; LYYTINEN, Kalle; KELL, Mark; CULE, Paul. Identifying software project risks: an international Delphi study. Journal o f management information systems, v. 17, n. 4, p. 5-36, 2001.
SEAGLE, Eddie; IVERSON, Maynard. Characteristics of the turfgrass industry in 2020: a Delphi study with implications for agricultural education programs. Journal of Southern Agricultural Research, v. 52, n. 1, p. 1-13, 2002. Disponível em: https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.500.7756&rep=rep1&type=pdf Acesso: 27 nov. 2020.
SHARECONOMY - The story of an economic revolution, 2014. Disponível em: https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/shareconomy/x/24662843#/ Acesso: 25 nov. 2020.
STRAUSS, Anselm; CORBIN, Juliet M. Grounded theory in practice. London, New Delhi: Sage, 1997.
VEN, AVD; DELBECP, André. The effectiveness of nominal, Delphi, and interacting group decision making processes. Academy of Management Journal, v. 17, n. 4, p. 605-621, 1974. Disponível em: https://journals.aom.org/doi/10.5465/255641 Acesso: 27 nov. 2020.
VON DER GRACHT, Heiko. Consensus measurement in Delphi studies: review and implications for future quality assurance. Technological forecasting and social change, v. 79, n. 8, p. 1525-1536, 2012.
WHITE, Gregory L. A model of romantic jealousy. Motivation and Emotion, v. 5, n. 4, p. 295-310, 1981.
WHITMAN, Walt. Provides in-depth analysis of the life, works. Boston: Twayne Publishers, 1990.
WRIGHT, James T. C.; GIOVINAZZO, Renata A. Delphi: uma ferramenta de apoio ao planejamento prospectivo. Caderno de Pesquisas em Administração, v. 1, n. 12, p. 54-65, 2000.
Published
2021-10-14
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